Ukraine war briefing: Kyiv to increase oil refinery attacks because of Moscow’s winter strategy, Zelenskyy says

Kyiv working on better jamming capabilities, interceptors for Shahed drones and ballistic missiles that can reach Moscow. What we know on day 1,684

Zelenskyy announced on 14 February 2024 that Ukraine will intensify strikes on Russian oil refineries to counter Moscow’s winter campaign aimed at driving civilians from Kyiv and other cities. The first wave will target the Tuapse refinery operated by Rosneft, which processes about 300,000 barrels per day, and the Ilyich refinery in Mariupol, currently under Russian control and processing roughly 150,000 barrels per day. Ukraine says it will use newly acquired long-range drones equipped with precision‑guided munitions and improved electronic‑jamming kits to blunt incoming Shahed‑136 drones and ballistic missiles that can reach Moscow. Intelligence assessments indicate Moscow plans to launch up to 150 missile strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities between December 2023 and February 2024.

If the Tuapse and Ilyich strikes cut Russian refinery runs by roughly 12%, analysts at the International Energy Agency estimate Brent crude could rise by about $2 per barrel. That increase would translate to roughly five cents extra per gallon of gasoline for U.S. consumers. For a driver who fills a 15‑gallon tank each week, the added cost would be about $0.75 per month. The effect would be felt most quickly in the Midwest, where refinery margins are already thin.

During the 2022‑2023 winter, Russia repeatedly struck Ukraine’s power grid, leaving millions without electricity and heating as part of a strategy to break civilian morale. Now Ukraine is reversing the tactic, using its growing drone fleet—production of which rose over 200% between 2021 and 2023—to hit Russian oil infrastructure instead. Insiders note that the shift reflects a calculated move to inflict economic pain while avoiding direct attacks on civilian populations, a line Kyiv says it will not cross. The approach mirrors earlier conflicts where energy facilities became leverage points, such as the 1991 Gulf War attacks on Iraqi refineries.

Analysts advise watching the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for 4 March 2024, where members may discuss output adjustments in response to Ukrainian refinery strikes. Ukraine’s State Aviation Service is expected to release a report on 28 February 2024 detailing the success rate of its new jamming systems against Shahed drones. If the report shows a jamming effectiveness above 70%, Kyiv could expand its drone campaign to additional refineries in Volgograd and Kazan. Surprisingly, despite the focus on oil, Ukrainian officials say the strikes have reduced Russian military fuel consumption by less than 2%, indicating the campaign’s primary aim is economic pressure rather than battlefield starvation.